31st Street Swing Left

Guide to Key US House & Senate Races 2018

Democratic control of the House will require a 24 seat gain. Winning at least 40 seats would give a more manageable majority and send a much stronger message that the direction of our country must change.
We have a great crop of candidates — best in a generation!

Spreadsheet: Donation Strategy

Guide to spreadsheet (click here)

See tab at bottom of Spreadsheet for SENATE RACES

Spreadsheet Key +

Race Categories

Best Picks Now – These are Mid-Tier races with standout Dem nominees already (either with no primary opposition or not very substantial competition). Most are designated by the DCCC as a “Red to Blue” priority. These are candidates we think are the best investment for donation now.
Next Best and Also Good – Good Mid-Tier races, but just not as high a priority as Best Picks Now.
Bigger Reach – Potentially winnable, but not as likely.
Too Good? – These Top Tier candidates/races, we think are winnable, but are already well positioned and not as good a strategic investment.

Well Funded – Winnable races, but which have decent direct funds already, especially compared to their opponents.

Column Headings

Donate Now – For priority candidates, click on the link and make a donation
Video – For some candidates, a direct link to a candidate video Cook Rating – Rating of the race by the Cook Report
Cook PVI – The "Partisan Voting Index" – an index of how the district leans based on previous voting patterns.
Hillary 2016 and Obama 2012 margins in the district
Betting Odds D/R The odds of a D vs R victory at the PredictIt online betting site. (These change frequently and may not be perfectly up to date.)
Priority Opponent – R incumbents that would be particularly good to oust.
D-Cash Latest and R -Cash Latest – Cash on hand as of the latest FEC report. When there is no standout candidate, it’s the competitor with the most cash.
Polls – Selected poll results or Real Clear Politics average.
Prim. Date– Date of primary, or run-off. Or may be date of special election.

Additional sources

1. "To Reclaim the House, Democrats Need to Flip 24 G.O.P. Seats. 25 Are in Clinton Territory.", Jasmine C. Lee, New York Times, March 26, 2018.